Decision Economics for Supply Chain
Better operational decisions under uncertainty.
Bit Bros is a boutique applied economics and optimization firm. We help supply chain, logistics, and manufacturing leaders make decisions that hold up when demand, lead times, and capacity do not go to plan.
What we offer
Five decisions we improve.
- 01 Inventory & Replenishment Ordering policies that weigh the cost of overstock against the cost of stockouts, item by item and location by location.
- 02 Demand Planning & Supply Allocation Deciding where scarce supply should go, with demand planned at the level where decisions are actually made.
- 03 Production Planning & Scheduling Plans that are feasible on the shop floor, solve inside the decision window, and price the tradeoff between cost, speed, and stability.
- 04 Logistics, Transportation & Maintenance Routing, fleet sizing, network design, and spare-parts logistics designed for real variability rather than averages.
- 05 Decision System Diagnostic A fixed-scope review of an existing planning or optimization system that finds where value is being lost and ranks the fixes.
How we work
We build you a decision factory.
A decision factory is a planning system where the economics are written down and routine decisions run on their own. We call the principle priced judgment: the machine draws the curve, and your people choose the point.
The machine
- Forecasts demand as a range
- Computes the efficient plans
- Runs the routine decisions
Your people
- Price what each error costs
- Choose the risk to carry
- Own what the data cannot see
We build it with your team, prove it on your own history, and coach your people to run it. They are re-equipped, not replaced.
See how we build it with clients ↗Our work
Results measured in dollars.
Online retail
Replacing rule-based ordering with an economic ordering model
The forecast was not the problem. The order was. Every item was being treated as if running out and overbuying cost the same.
$13M+Measured financial impact
Partner experience, prior role
Automotive manufacturing
Allocating scarce production capacity across a North American vehicle lineup
A vehicle mix that looks attractive in isolation may block a more valuable combination elsewhere in the network. Neither a demand ranking nor a unit-margin ranking finds the best feasible mix.
$390MRealized incremental profit, reported and attributed to the work
Partner experience, prior role
Mobility and transportation
Sizing an on-demand mobility fleet with simulation
Sizing for peak buys reliability at a price the business model cannot carry. Sizing for average fails exactly when riders need the service most.
27%Reduction in required fleet size
Partner experience, prior role
Who we are
Partner-led, from the first call to production.
John Brandon Elam
Managing Director
Leads client engagements. John has led decision intelligence products tied to more than $290M in documented profit impact.
Adam DeJans Jr.
Technical Managing Director
Leads technical design. Adam built a production allocation engine covering $60B in decisions, with $390M in realized profit attributed to it, and systems for ordering, routing, and fleet sizing.
The partners who scope the work build it and coach your team to own it. Specialist engineers and scientists from our network join as the work requires.
About us →Also from the partners
Products and publications.
Software
Order Otter
Ordering software that recommends how much to buy by simulating the full range of demand and lead-time outcomes.
orderotter.ai ↗
Papers & novel
The Decision Factory
A six-paper series and a novel on building decision systems for operations and supply chain planning.
thedecisionfactory.com ↗
Method & book
The Decision Product
A practical method, and a book in progress, for turning analysis into decisions an organization can run.
thedecisionproduct.com ↗
Books
Written by the partners.
#1 Best Seller, Stochastic Optimization
The Decision Factory
Buy on Amazon ↗
#1 Best Seller, Optimization
The MILP Optimization Handbook
Buy on Amazon ↗
Volume 2, MILP Handbook series
The Linearization Handbook for MILP Optimization
Buy on Amazon ↗
Best Seller, Business Operations Research
You Got the Data Job... Now What?
Buy on Amazon ↗